Affirm Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: AFRM)

Sector: Technology Industry: Software - Infrastructure CIK: 0001820953
Market Cap 17.14 Bn
P/B 4.83
P/E 60.71
P/S 4.61
ROIC (Qtr) 1.88
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 29.62
Total Debt (Qtr) 9.14 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.58
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About

Affirm Holdings, Inc., or Affirm, operates under the ticker symbol AFRM, providing financial products and services to consumers and merchants with a focus on digital and mobile-first commerce. The company's primary business activities include offering installment loans, Pay-in-4, a short-term payment plan, and Core loans, which include monthly interest-bearing and 0% APR installment loans. Affirm also provides a high-yield savings account and a virtual card for consumers. Merchant services include Affirm at Checkout, pay-over-time options, and 0%...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Robust free cash flow of 619.13M exceeds capital expenditure of 214.20M by 2.89x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Operating cash flow of 833.34M provides strong 69444.58x coverage of operating expenses 12000, showing operational efficiency.
  • Robust R&D investment of 660.20M at 0.75x of SG&A 884.17M demonstrates strong commitment to innovation and future growth.
  • Free cash flow of 619.13M provides solid 51594.50x coverage of operating expenses 12000, showing operational efficiency.
  • Operating cash flow of 833.34M provides strong 3.89x coverage of capital expenditure 214.20M, enabling organic growth.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 833.34M barely covers its investment activities of (1.92B), with a coverage ratio of -0.43, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Investment activities of (1.92B) provide weak support for R&D spending of 660.20M, which is -2.91x, suggesting potentially insufficient investment in innovation relative to other capital deployment.
  • The company's operating cash flow of 833.34M shows concerning coverage of stock compensation expenses of 304.75M, with a 2.73 ratio indicating potential earnings quality issues.
  • Operating earnings of 293.18M show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 264.38M, with a 1.11 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.
  • Fixed assets of 639.89M showing 2.42x ratio to depreciation of 264.38M indicates aging infrastructure requiring significant near-term capital investment.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Software - Infrastructure
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 MSFT Microsoft Corp 2,948.93 Bn 24.73 9.65 57.61 Bn
2 ORCL Oracle Corp 734.55 Bn 67.24 19.76 124.39 Bn
3 PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. 313.28 Bn 192.78 70.00 0.23 Bn
4 PANW Palo Alto Networks Inc 109.38 Bn 97.90 11.45 0.35 Bn
5 CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. 102.48 Bn -326.20 22.45 0.82 Bn
6 SNPS Synopsys Inc 69.14 Bn 51.90 9.80 14.29 Bn
7 NET Cloudflare, Inc. 66.52 Bn -645.60 33.04 3.50 Bn
8 FTNT Fortinet, Inc. 62.73 Bn 33.48 9.57 1.00 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 1.77 2.10
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 27.57 3.92
EV to Debt EV to Debt 2.51 -2.43
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 78.35 11.57
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 46.38 18.19
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 37.10 19.98
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.34 1.27
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 6.18 29.29
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 4.83 4.97
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 60.71 -12.45
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Dividend Coverage Ratio 0.00 0.21
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 2.73
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.11
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 1.67
Interest Coverage Interest Coverage 0.00 -16.04
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -23.97 -403.22
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 20.57 223.80
Dividend Growth (1y) % Dividend Growth (1y) % 0.00 -0.28
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 241.92 585.97
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 396.29 5.89
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 252.19 27.96
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 252.19 20.61
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 234.92 144.77
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 1.00 50.30
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 42.62 45.98
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.29 0.65
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 0.01
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 1.23
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 2.63
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.58 0.73
Interest Cover Ratio Interest Cover Ratio 0.00 -16.04
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned 0.00 -16.04
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 15.00 -549.97
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 7.89 -240.33
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 7.89 -608.68
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 47.80 51.14
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 7.60 -611.28