Aflac Inc (NYSE: AFL)

Sector: Financial Services Industry: Insurance - Life CIK: 0000004977
Market Cap 78.90 Bn
P/B 2.35
P/E 18.62
P/S 3.49
ROIC (Qtr) 11.86
Div Yield % 1.60
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 60.73
Total Debt (Qtr) 8.69 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.30
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About

AFLAC Incorporated, known as AFLAC, is a prominent player in the supplemental insurance industry, with a significant presence in the United States and Japan. The company has been in operation since 1973 and has established itself as a major provider of financial protection to millions of policyholders and customers in both countries. AFLAC's primary business activities revolve around the provision of supplemental health and life insurance products. These offerings include cancer, medical, and disability insurance, which are designed to provide...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong tangible asset base of 122.31B provides 14.08x coverage of total debt 8.69B, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Tangible assets of 122.31B provide exceptional 90.66x coverage of deferred revenue 1.35B, showing strong service capability backing.
  • Operating cash flow of 2.57B provides exceptional 12.31x coverage of interest expenses 209M, showing strong debt service capability.
  • Free cash flow of 2.57B provides exceptional 12.31x coverage of interest expense 209M, showing strong debt service ability.
  • Retained earnings of 53.92B represent substantial 1.88x of equity 28.69B, indicating strong internal capital generation.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 2.57B barely covers its investment activities of 2.72B, with a coverage ratio of 0.95, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 2.57B provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (1.17B) with a -2.19 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Operating cash flow of 2.57B is outpaced by equity issuance of (3.48B) (-0.74 ratio), indicating concerning reliance on equity markets for funding operations.
  • Tax assets of 0 provide limited offset against tax liabilities of 1.48B, which is 0x, indicating potential future cash flow pressure from tax obligations.
  • R&D investment of 0 represents just 0x of SG&A expenses of 5.08B, indicating potential underinvestment in innovation relative to administrative overhead.

Consolidation Items Breakdown of Revenue (2022)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Insurance - Life
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 MET Metlife Inc 81.60 Bn 15.56 1.20 20.23 Bn
2 AFL Aflac Inc 78.90 Bn 18.62 3.49 8.69 Bn
3 MFC Manulife Financial Corp 63.37 Bn 16.53 2.20 10.71 Bn
4 PUK Prudential Plc 38.02 Bn 21.76 0.58 -
5 PRU Prudential Financial Inc 36.75 Bn 10.28 0.60 32.56 Bn
6 PRI Primerica, Inc. 19.72 Bn 133.62 17.82 0.65 Bn
7 UNM Unum Group 18.81 Bn 64.52 1.80 3.77 Bn
8 GL Globe Life Inc. 14.78 Bn 13.56 2.87 2.71 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.67 0.25
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 14.73 38.74
EV to Debt EV to Debt 9.39 4.98
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 14.70 18.23
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 14.70 14.59
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 14.73 34.05
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.03 1.00
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 3.61 2.53
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 2.35 2.19
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 18.62 26.16
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 3.55 3.59
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 29.20 22.49
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 2.24 1.48
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 46.15 0.41
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 25.38 7.54
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex Growth (1y) % 0.00 -27.98
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 20.60 19.69
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 16.67 15.89
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 9.30 89.68
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 11.33 64.87
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 11.33 82.78
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 11.49 344.70
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 14.46 2,261.01
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -12.96 186.52
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 7.39 50.91
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.14 0.13
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.46 0.12
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 0.00
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 0.00
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.30 0.49
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 25.38 7.54
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 25.38 7.54
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 30.00 15.04
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 29.97 14.45
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 28.79 12.36
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 58.70 45.61
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 23.60 10.89