Lincoln National Corp (NYSE: LNC)

Sector: Financial Services Industry: Insurance - Life CIK: 0000059558
Market Cap 10.65 Bn
P/B 0.72
P/E 7.44
P/S 0.77
ROIC (Qtr) 14.82
Div Yield % 2.91
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 10.80
Total Debt (Qtr) 5.77 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.55
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About

Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) is a prominent player in the insurance and financial services industry within the United States. The company's operations are concentrated in the provision of a diverse range of life insurance products, including term life, universal life, and variable universal life insurance. These offerings extend to both individual consumers and businesses seeking group life insurance coverage. LNC functions as a holding company for several insurance subsidiaries, such as Lincoln National Life Insurance Company (LNL) and First...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong tangible asset base of 414.13B provides 71.75x coverage of total debt 5.77B, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Retained earnings of 7.73B represent substantial 0.74x of equity 10.45B, indicating strong internal capital generation.
  • Retained earnings of 7.73B provide strong 6.76x coverage of intangibles 1.14B, indicating quality earnings retention.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 414.13B provides 362x coverage of intangibles 1.14B, indicating robust asset quality.
  • Tangible assets of 414.13B provide robust 14.45x coverage of receivables 28.66B, showing strong asset quality.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of (178M) barely covers its investment activities of (817M), with a coverage ratio of 0.22, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of (178M) provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (316M) with a 0.56 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Operating cash flow of (178M) provides minimal -0.43x coverage of tax expenses of 414M, suggesting potential tax planning inefficiencies or unsustainable tax positions.
  • Free cash flow of (178M) represents just 0.22x of debt issuance (820M), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.
  • Retained earnings of 7.73B provide limited buffer against comprehensive income items of (3.84B), which is -2.01x, indicating elevated exposure to market risks.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Insurance - Life
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 MET Metlife Inc 81.60 Bn 15.56 1.20 20.23 Bn
2 AFL Aflac Inc 78.90 Bn 18.62 3.49 8.69 Bn
3 MFC Manulife Financial Corp 63.37 Bn 16.53 2.20 10.71 Bn
4 PUK Prudential Plc 38.02 Bn 21.76 0.58 -
5 PRU Prudential Financial Inc 36.75 Bn 10.28 0.60 32.56 Bn
6 PRI Primerica, Inc. 19.72 Bn 133.62 17.82 0.65 Bn
7 UNM Unum Group 18.81 Bn 64.52 1.80 3.77 Bn
8 GL Globe Life Inc. 14.78 Bn 13.56 2.87 2.71 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.03 0.25
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 4.76 38.74
EV to Debt EV to Debt 2.26 4.98
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 6.16 18.23
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 6.17 14.59
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 4.76 34.05
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.22 1.00
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 0.95 2.53
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 0.72 2.19
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 7.44 26.16
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) -0.56 3.59
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 15.70 22.49
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 1.80 1.48
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) -191.69 0.41
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) -5.45 7.54
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex Growth (1y) % 0.00 -27.98
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 77.42 19.69
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 0.00 15.89
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 43.99 89.68
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 270.89 64.87
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 56.89 82.78
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 54.26 344.70
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 651.97 2,261.01
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 95.66 186.52
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 329.33 50.91
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.04 0.13
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.08 0.12
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 0.00
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 0.00
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.55 0.49
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) -5.45 7.54
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) -5.45 7.54
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) -6.80 15.04
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) -6.80 14.45
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) -8.05 12.36
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 15.00 45.61
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 11.00 10.89