Advance Auto Parts Inc (NYSE: AAP)

Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Auto Parts CIK: 0001158449
Market Cap 2.61 Bn
P/B 1.19
P/E -6.93
P/S 0.30
ROIC (Qtr) -6.82
Div Yield % 2.85
Rev 1y % (Qtr) -5.21
Total Debt (Qtr) 5.26 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.40

About

Advance Auto Parts, Inc., or AAP, is a prominent player in the automotive aftermarket parts industry in North America. The company's operations span across a wide range of territories, primarily under the trade names Advance Auto Parts, Carquest, and Worldpac. Since its inception in 1929, the company has experienced significant growth, attributable to strategic acquisitions, new store openings, and comparable store sales growth. Advance Auto Parts' primary business activities revolve around the provision of automotive replacement parts, accessories,...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Free cash flow of (379.23M) provides excellent 6.32x coverage of dividends (59.97M), indicating sustainable shareholder returns.
  • Robust tangible asset base of 11.06B provides 3.49x coverage of working capital 3.17B, indicating strong operational backing.
  • Tangible assets of 11.06B provide robust 9.44x coverage of other current liabilities 1.17B, indicating strong asset backing.
  • Strong cash position of 3.17B provides 2.71x coverage of other current liabilities 1.17B, indicating excellent liquidity.
  • Retained earnings of 4.16B provide strong 3.55x coverage of other current liabilities 1.17B, indicating earnings quality.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of (191.30M) barely covers its investment activities of 1.34B, with a coverage ratio of -0.14, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • The company's operating cash flow of (191.30M) shows concerning coverage of stock compensation expenses of 37.38M, with a -5.12 ratio indicating potential earnings quality issues.
  • Free cash flow of (379.23M) provides weak coverage of capital expenditures of 187.92M, with a -2.02 ratio suggesting additional external financing needs for growth initiatives.
  • Operating cash flow of (191.30M) provides minimal 0.52x coverage of tax expenses of (365.91M), suggesting potential tax planning inefficiencies or unsustainable tax positions.
  • Operating earnings of (637.78M) show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 288.78M, with a -2.21 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.

Geographical Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Auto Parts
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 ORLY O Reilly Automotive Inc 80.07 Bn 32.23 4.59 8.40 Bn
2 AZO Autozone Inc 57.24 Bn 23.23 2.97 12.05 Bn
3 APTV Aptiv PLC 19.67 Bn 66.67 0.98 8.03 Bn
4 GPC Genuine Parts Co 17.83 Bn 22.05 0.74 6.40 Bn
5 MGA Magna International Inc 15.86 Bn 15.36 0.38 7.48 Bn
6 ALV Autoliv Inc 9.72 Bn 12.92 0.92 2.19 Bn
7 MBLY Mobileye Global Inc. 9.47 Bn -28.17 4.88 0.00 Bn
8 BWA Borgwarner Inc 8.87 Bn 66.21 0.63 3.90 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.38 1.16
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO -24.04 9.30
EV to Debt EV to Debt 0.87 34.64
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT -7.21 4.45
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA -7.44 7.40
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF -12.13 17.25
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.76 1.58
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 0.53 3.42
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 1.19 -0.33
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E -6.93 11.70
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) -6.28 1.64
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) -15.80 12.18
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 1.00 0.41
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) -15.82 13.70
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) -6.08 -110.44
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -15.60 -13.49
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 583.33 27.17
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 0.00 1.96
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -392.79 5.41
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -279.50 -8.06
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -574.54 -22.36
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -1,491.86 -123.98
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -967.12 -110.42
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -249.32 24.26
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -17.27 16.01
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.72 0.92
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) -17.75 -0.25
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.73 0.69
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.73 2.88
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.40 0.22
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) -6.08 -110.44
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) -6.08 -110.44
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) -4.00 -952.44
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) -7.39 -997.37
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) -8.61 -987.56
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 37.20 -122.43
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) -4.40 -979.78