Alcoa Corp (NYSE: AA)

Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Aluminum CIK: 0001675149
Market Cap 10.68 Bn
P/B 2.83
P/E 24.77
P/S 1.02
ROIC (Qtr) 22.25
Div Yield % 0.17
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 3.13
Total Debt (Qtr) 2.58 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.41
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About

Alcoa Corporation, known by its stock symbol AA, operates in the upstream aluminum industry, encompassing bauxite mining, alumina refining, and aluminum smelting and casting. With a presence across nine countries on six continents, Alcoa boasts a wide-ranging footprint in the global market. Alcoa's primary business activities revolve around the production of aluminum and alumina, which are utilized in various industries such as aerospace, automotive, packaging, and construction. The company's offerings include aluminum, which is smelted and cast...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong operating cash flow of 1.06B provides robust 0.41x coverage of total debt 2.58B, indicating excellent debt servicing capability and financial flexibility.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 15.97B provides 6.19x coverage of total debt 2.58B, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.06B provides strong 27.97x coverage of stock compensation 38M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Strong operating cash flow of 1.06B provides 3.42x coverage of SG&A expenses 311M, showing efficient operational cost management.
  • Robust tangible asset base of 15.97B provides 8.41x coverage of working capital 1.90B, indicating strong operational backing.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 1.06B barely covers its investment activities of (425M), with a coverage ratio of -2.50, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.06B provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (104M) with a -10.22 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Investment activities of (425M) provide weak support for R&D spending of 52M, which is -8.17x, suggesting potentially insufficient investment in innovation relative to other capital deployment.
  • Operating earnings of 1.55B show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 620M, with a 2.50 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.
  • High depreciation of 620M relative to operating cash flow of 1.06B, which is 0.58x suggests significant maintenance capital requirements affecting free cash flow.

Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Geographical Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Aluminum
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 AA Alcoa Corp 10.68 Bn 24.77 1.02 2.58 Bn
2 CENX Century Aluminum Co 4.58 Bn 56.85 1.81 0.62 Bn
3 CSTM Constellium Se 3.26 Bn 27.09 0.41 2.01 Bn
4 KALU Kaiser Aluminum Corp 2.69 Bn 28.98 2.02 1.07 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.69 1.27
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 95.62 65.32
EV to Debt EV to Debt 4.30 4.40
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 12.46 20.60
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 6.96 12.52
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 39.19 -28.70
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.04 1.19
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 1.06 1.45
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 2.83 3.83
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 24.77 34.42
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 11.02 7.48
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 8.80 15.80
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.40 0.87
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 19.92 57.58
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 8.28 4.59
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 9.35 8.66
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 13.10 64.26
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 0.00 8.33
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -53.94 -20.79
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 224.89 74.83
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 1,128.57 279.91
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 10,569.23 2,644.71
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 361.14 88.41
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 368.04 35.98
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 89.67 40.71
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.81 1.18
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.06 0.06
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.44 0.20
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.56 1.76
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.41 1.24
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 8.28 4.59
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 8.28 4.59
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 16.80 10.48
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 12.03 6.61
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 10.58 5.14
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 18.40 14.03
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 8.90 4.10