XP Inc. (NASDAQ: XP)

Sector: Financial Services Industry: Capital Markets CIK: 0001787425
Market Cap 10.38 Bn
P/B 2.42
P/E 11.01
P/S 3.09
ROIC (Qtr) 20.53
Div Yield % 0.91
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 25.42
Total Debt (Qtr) 18.69 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 4.35
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About

XP Inc., a company listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol XP, operates in the financial services industry with a diverse range of businesses including brokerage, asset management, insurance, and banking. The company's headquarters are in Brazil, and it has a significant presence in the Brazilian financial market. XP Inc. generates revenue through various sources, including brokerage commissions, asset management fees, insurance premiums, and banking services. The company's primary products and services include brokerage services,...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong tangible asset base of 71.85B provides 3.84x coverage of total debt 18.69B, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 2.35B provides exceptional 20.61x coverage of interest expenses 114.12M, showing strong debt service capability.
  • Operating cash flow of 2.35B provides strong 32.90x coverage of stock compensation 71.48M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Robust free cash flow of 2.31B exceeds capital expenditure of 38.19M by 60.58x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Strong operating cash flow of 2.35B provides 1.92x coverage of SG&A expenses 1.23B, showing efficient operational cost management.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 2.35B barely covers its investment activities of (130.65M), with a coverage ratio of -18, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 2.35B provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (90.24M) with a -26.06 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Cash reserves of 1.89B provide limited coverage of acquisition spending of (32.07M), which is -58.92x, suggesting aggressive expansion might strain liquidity if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Free cash flow of 2.31B represents just -5.01x of debt issuance (461.92M), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.
  • Operating cash flow of 2.35B shows concerning coverage of minority interest expenses of (90145.99), which is -26089.12x, suggesting complex corporate structure risks.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Capital Markets
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc 370.13 Bn 100.44 11.31 911.32 Bn
2 MS Morgan Stanley 303.66 Bn 21.50 5.16 353.12 Bn
3 BMNR Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. 146.52 Bn -30.07 20,386.82 0.00 Bn
4 SCHW Schwab Charles Corp 111.50 Bn 193.92 27.50 27.59 Bn
5 HOOD Robinhood Markets, Inc. 66.47 Bn 30.30 15.81 0.00 Bn
6 LPLA LPL Financial Holdings Inc. 31.32 Bn 164.38 7.18 7.52 Bn
7 IBKR Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. 31.19 Bn 45.81 6.61 28.43 Bn
8 CRCL Circle Internet Group, Inc. 29.31 Bn 186.73 17.33 0.15 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.09 1.16
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 2.87 1.57
EV to Debt EV to Debt 0.36 18.65
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 6.09 10.06
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 5.90 19.26
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 2.92 17.36
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 0.65 -1.88
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 2.01 293.27
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 2.42 4.40
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 11.01 1.20
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 1.91 -0.90
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 10.10 7.38
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.18 0.69
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.75 -9.01
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 9.71 -165.39
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -75.08 -12,128.19
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 108.17 1,713.17
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) -72.31 3.31
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 24.53 -2,037.55
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 18.03 -3,959.17
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 18.85 734.43
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 23.28 845.20
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 32.70 29.40
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 19.71 -3,403.50
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 21.89 55.49
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.01 0.52
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.04 -0.08
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 1.46
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 2.97
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 4.35 1.45
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 9.71 -165.39
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 9.71 -165.39
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 34.70 -959.98
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 180.93 -999.31
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 29.62 -982.34
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 70.30 53.08
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 28.10 -988.47