Tilly'S, Inc. (NYSE: TLYS)

Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Apparel Retail CIK: 0001524025
Market Cap 55.57 Mn
P/B 0.68
P/E -1.63
P/S 0.10
ROIC (Qtr) -14.44
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) -2.69
Total Debt (Qtr) 165.94 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.03

About

Tilly's, Inc., commonly recognized by its stock symbol TLYS, operates as a leading destination specialty retailer in the apparel industry. The company's main business activities involve the retail sale of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods, primarily targeting young men, young women, boys, and girls. Tilly's has a significant presence in the western United States, with a majority of its 248 stores located in California, Texas, and Florida. The company generates revenue through a diverse range of products, including branded, fashion,...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Tangible assets of 317.07M provide exceptional 25.06x coverage of deferred revenue 12.65M, showing strong service capability backing.
  • Robust tangible asset base of 317.07M provides 15.32x coverage of working capital 20.70M, indicating strong operational backing.
  • Tangible assets of 317.07M provide robust 9.85x coverage of other current liabilities 32.18M, indicating strong asset backing.
  • Cash position of 39.04M provides strong 3.09x coverage of deferred revenue 12.65M, ensuring service delivery capability.
  • Cash position of 39.04M represents healthy 1.89x of working capital 20.70M, demonstrating strong operational liquidity.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of (8.32M) barely covers its investment activities of 20.96M, with a coverage ratio of -0.40, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of (8.32M) provides insufficient coverage of deferred revenue obligations of 12.65M, which is -0.66x, raising concerns about future service delivery capabilities.
  • The company's operating cash flow of (8.32M) shows concerning coverage of stock compensation expenses of 1.66M, with a -5.03 ratio indicating potential earnings quality issues.
  • Free cash flow of (13.19M) provides weak coverage of capital expenditures of 4.87M, with a -2.71 ratio suggesting additional external financing needs for growth initiatives.
  • Operating cash flow of (8.32M) provides minimal -99.08x coverage of tax expenses of 84000, suggesting potential tax planning inefficiencies or unsustainable tax positions.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Apparel Retail
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 TJX Tjx Companies Inc /De/ 175.80 Bn 34.34 2.98 13.19 Bn
2 ROST Ross Stores, Inc. 58.85 Bn 28.21 2.67 5.19 Bn
3 LULU lululemon athletica inc. 25.43 Bn 14.61 2.30 1.76 Bn
4 BURL Burlington Stores, Inc. 18.26 Bn 32.57 1.63 5.94 Bn
5 GAP Gap Inc 10.00 Bn 11.75 0.65 5.52 Bn
6 URBN Urban Outfitters Inc 7.11 Bn 14.53 1.18 1.18 Bn
7 ANF Abercrombie & Fitch Co /De/ 6.17 Bn 11.82 1.19 1.13 Bn
8 BOOT Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. 5.78 Bn 27.75 2.79 0.67 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.58 1.35
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO -22.05 8.18
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.11 4.33
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT -5.40 -60.97
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA -7.42 6.53
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF -13.91 22.99
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 3.30 2.06
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 0.34 1.11
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 0.68 3.23
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E -1.63 195.16
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.00 0.88
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 12.58
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.36
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 16.33
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 0.00 13.58
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) 51.64 -5.40
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 47.84 89.63
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 0.00 1.25
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 35.88 13.95
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 21.05 -16.93
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 14.06 10.85
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 14.06 6.10
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 35.59 10.94
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 70.39 -129.32
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -4.35 -1.75
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 1.72 1.40
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 0.06
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.34 0.38
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 1.18 1.59
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.03 1.31
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 0.00 13.58
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 0.00 13.58
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) -4.10 2.72
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) -6.23 -1.70
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) -6.23 -2.76
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 27.70 40.52
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) -6.20 -4.02