Tg Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: TGTX)

Sector: Healthcare Industry: Biotechnology CIK: 0001001316
Market Cap 4.55 Bn
P/E 10.14
P/S 7.38
Div. Yield 0.00
ROIC (Qtr) -191.14
Total Debt (Qtr) 245.65 Mn
Revenue Growth (1y) (Qtr) 78.00
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About

TG Therapeutics, Inc., a prominent player in the biopharmaceutical industry, is dedicated to the acquisition, development, and commercialization of innovative treatments for B-cell mediated diseases. The company's primary focus is the development and commercialization of its lead product, BRIUMVI (ublituximab-xiiy), an anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody approved for the treatment of relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (RMS). TG Therapeutics' main business activities encompass the development and commercialization of novel treatments, primarily centered...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • BRIUMVI’s long‑term clinical data are a cornerstone of the bullish case. The open‑label extension of the ULTIMATE I and II trials now shows that nearly 90 % of patients remain free from disability progression after six years, with an annualized relapse rate of just 0.012. This durability of efficacy, combined with a consistent safety profile, is rare for a disease‑modifying therapy and gives the company a strong narrative for ongoing persistence. Because physicians and patients are increasingly focused on long‑term outcomes, this data set positions BRIUMVI as the preferred choice in a market that values sustained benefit.
  • The subcutaneous (subcu) development program could effectively double BRIUMVI’s addressable market. Management’s estimate that a self‑administered format could capture 35‑40 % of the dynamic share, compared with the current IV market, is supported by the growing patient preference for at‑home therapies. If approved, TG would be the only company offering both IV and subcu anti‑CD20 options, creating a unique competitive moat. Moreover, the projected launch window of 2028 allows TG to capitalize on a potentially expanding patient base while avoiding the intense competition that will exist in 2025‑2026.
  • Direct‑to‑consumer (DTC) campaigns and field‑force expansion have begun to shift market dynamics in TG’s favor. The company’s first full quarter of national television and digital initiatives has already elevated branded search activity and website engagement above pre‑campaign baselines, indicating growing patient awareness. Concurrently, the field team has expanded selectively to improve coverage in hospitals and community practices, which have shown higher growth rates than private practices. These combined efforts are likely to translate into higher new‑patient starts and better market penetration, reinforcing the company’s growth trajectory.
  • Beyond BRIUMVI, TG’s pipeline offers diversified opportunities that could materially expand the company’s revenue base. The allogeneic CAR T therapy azer‑cel is targeting progressive MS, a population with limited therapeutic options, and early data suggest a potentially transformative impact. In addition, preliminary experience in myasthenia gravis (MG) indicates that CD20 therapies may be applicable beyond MS, opening a new therapeutic area that could generate substantial incremental sales if further development proceeds. These assets demonstrate TG’s commitment to innovation and provide upside if they reach the clinic.
  • Financial discipline underpins TG’s ability to invest in growth while protecting shareholder value. The company achieved six consecutive quarters of profitability and remains on track for full‑year operating expense guidance of $300‑$320 million. Cash, equivalents, and investment securities at $178 million give the firm flexibility to fund clinical programs, pursue new indications, and execute share‑repurchase plans. The release of a $365 million deferred tax asset valuation allowance also underscores the company’s strong tax position, enhancing net income without affecting cash flow.
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Bear case

  • The slight slowdown in Q4 guidance relative to prior years signals that BRIUMVI’s growth may be plateauing. Management’s response to the headwinds was evasive, citing patient retention and field expansion without providing concrete metrics. In a market where pricing and reimbursement pressure are intensifying, a muted growth rate could erode the company’s ability to sustain its sales momentum, especially as competitors gain share through at‑home formulations and more aggressive pricing tactics.
  • The subcutaneous program, while potentially lucrative, is subject to significant uncertainty. Enrollment is on schedule, but the company has not yet released any pharmacokinetic or efficacy data, and the projected launch in 2028 is based on regulatory approval timelines that can shift. A delay or failure to meet regulatory expectations could postpone revenue upside and diminish the strategic advantage of having both IV and subcu options. Moreover, the company has no contingency plan disclosed for a subcu launch that fails to capture the anticipated market share.
  • Operating expenses are rising, and the company’s guidance still leaves little margin for error. R&D spending increased from $71 million to $86.6 million quarter‑over‑quarter, and SG&A is also rising due to field‑force expansion. If revenue growth slows or the company faces pricing pressure, these higher expenses could compress gross margins, impacting profitability. The management’s focus on maintaining profitability may not be sufficient if the cost base continues to expand without proportional revenue gains.
  • Pricing and reimbursement risk loom large for a drug that is the industry’s most expensive MS therapy. While the company has not disclosed specific payer negotiations, the introduction of competing at‑home subcu therapies could trigger payers to demand price reductions or stricter utilization management. Any adverse change in reimbursement policy would directly affect BRIUMVI’s sales volume and price per patient, potentially eroding the company’s high profit margins.
  • BRIUMVI remains the company’s sole revenue engine, creating a concentration risk. Although the company discusses other pipeline assets, none are yet approved or have clear commercial potential. Should BRIUMVI face competitive challenges, pricing pressure, or regulatory setbacks, TG would have limited alternative products to offset declining sales, exposing the company to significant downside. The lack of a diversified product portfolio makes the company vulnerable to shifts in the disease‑modifying therapy landscape.
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Product and Service Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Equity Components Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Peer comparison

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5 RPRX Royalty Pharma plc 19.93 Bn 25.90 8.38 8.95 Bn
6 ZLAB Zai Lab Ltd 19.57 Bn -111.69 80.73 0.20 Bn
7 MRNA Moderna, Inc. 18.75 Bn -6.63 9.65 0.59 Bn
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