Douglas Dynamics, Inc (NYSE: PLOW)

Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Auto Parts CIK: 0001287213
Market Cap 842.19 Mn
P/B 3.06
P/E 20.07
P/S 1.37
ROIC (Qtr) 9.18
Div Yield % 4.11
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 25.29
Total Debt (Qtr) 295.58 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.07

About

Douglas Dynamics, Inc., referred to as PLOW in the stock market, operates in the industry of manufacturing and upfitting commercial work truck attachments and equipment. With a rich history spanning over 75 years, the company has been a leader in the industry, providing a diverse range of products and services tailored to the needs of its customers. Douglas Dynamics' core business activities are divided into two segments: Work Truck Attachments and Work Truck Solutions. The Work Truck Attachments segment, which contributes approximately 84% of...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Robust free cash flow of 41.28M exceeds capital expenditure of 11.88M by 3.47x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Tangible assets of 472.90M provide robust 13.71x coverage of other current liabilities 34.49M, indicating strong asset backing.
  • Operating cash flow of 53.17M fully covers other non-current liabilities 49.51M by 1.07x, showing strong long-term stability.
  • Operating cash flow of 53.17M provides strong 8.47x coverage of operating expenses 6.28M, showing operational efficiency.
  • Strong tangible asset base of 472.90M provides 2.13x coverage of intangibles 222.03M, indicating robust asset quality.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 53.17M barely covers its investment activities of (11.80M), with a coverage ratio of -4.51, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • With cash reserves of 10.64M against inventory of 158.48M, the 0.07 cash-to-inventory ratio suggests potential liquidity risks if inventory turnover slows, particularly concerning given current supply chain volatilities.
  • Operating cash flow of 53.17M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (27.90M) with a -1.91 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Operating earnings of 67.28M show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 23.62M, with a 2.85 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.
  • Free cash flow of 41.28M represents just -8.13x of debt issuance (5.08M), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Auto Parts
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 ORLY O Reilly Automotive Inc 80.07 Bn 32.23 4.59 8.40 Bn
2 AZO Autozone Inc 57.24 Bn 23.23 2.97 12.05 Bn
3 APTV Aptiv PLC 19.67 Bn 66.67 0.98 8.03 Bn
4 GPC Genuine Parts Co 17.83 Bn 22.05 0.74 6.40 Bn
5 MGA Magna International Inc 15.86 Bn 15.36 0.38 7.48 Bn
6 ALV Autoliv Inc 9.72 Bn 12.92 0.92 2.19 Bn
7 MBLY Mobileye Global Inc. 9.47 Bn -28.17 4.88 0.00 Bn
8 BWA Borgwarner Inc 8.87 Bn 66.21 0.63 3.90 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 1.60 1.16
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 20.89 9.30
EV to Debt EV to Debt 3.76 34.64
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 16.51 4.45
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 12.22 7.40
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 26.91 17.25
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.32 1.58
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 1.81 3.42
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 3.06 -0.33
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 20.07 11.70
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 1.50 1.64
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 65.90 12.18
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 1.18 0.41
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 65.85 13.70
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 5.49 -110.44
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -75.27 -13.49
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 26.53 27.17
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 0.00 1.96
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -24.57 5.41
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -22.31 -8.06
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -24.15 -22.36
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -23.72 -123.98
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -23.18 -110.42
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 12.91 24.26
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 15.42 16.01
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.89 0.92
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.43 -0.25
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.06 0.69
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 2.01 2.88
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.07 0.22
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 5.49 -110.44
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 5.49 -110.44
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 14.80 -952.44
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 10.94 -997.37
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 8.94 -987.56
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 26.40 -122.43
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 6.80 -979.78