Lincoln Educational Services Corp (NASDAQ: LINC)

Sector: Consumer Defensive Industry: Education & Training Services CIK: 0001286613
Market Cap 946.15 Mn
P/B 5.09
P/E 66.96
P/S 1.91
ROIC (Qtr) 4.49
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 23.58
Total Debt (Qtr) 195.73 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.05
Add ratio to table...

About

Lincoln Educational Services Corporation (LINC) is a leading provider of career-oriented post-secondary education in the United States. With a rich history dating back to 1946, the company has grown to offer a diverse range of programs in various fields including skilled trades, automotive technology, health sciences, hospitality services, and information technology. LINC operates 21 campuses across 13 states, serving a total enrollment of 13,270 students as of December 31, 2023. The company generates revenue by providing diploma and certificate...

Read more

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 46.10M provides exceptional 14.51x coverage of interest expenses 3.18M, showing strong debt service capability.
  • Tangible assets of 456.20M provide exceptional 13.62x coverage of deferred revenue 33.48M, showing strong service capability backing.
  • Tangible assets of 456.20M provide robust 9.07x coverage of other current liabilities 50.28M, indicating strong asset backing.
  • Operating cash flow of 46.10M provides strong 14.91x coverage of inventory 3.09M, indicating efficient inventory management.
  • Operating cash flow of 46.10M provides strong 61.31x coverage of operating expenses 752000, showing operational efficiency.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 46.10M barely covers its investment activities of (92.41M), with a coverage ratio of -0.50, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 46.10M provides insufficient coverage of deferred revenue obligations of 33.48M, which is 1.38x, raising concerns about future service delivery capabilities.
  • High receivables of 73.94M relative to inventory of 3.09M (23.91 ratio) suggests aggressive credit terms or collection difficulties, potentially masking revenue quality issues.
  • Free cash flow of (46.30M) provides weak coverage of capital expenditures of 92.41M, with a -0.50 ratio suggesting additional external financing needs for growth initiatives.
  • Operating earnings of 23.93M show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 17.37M, with a 1.38 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.

Consolidation Items Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Education & Training Services
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 EDU New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. 9.35 Bn 24.58 1.82 0.78 Bn
2 TAL TAL Education Group 6.18 Bn 22.22 2.20 0.38 Bn
3 GHC Graham Holdings Co 5.47 Bn 12.27 1.91 1.17 Bn
4 LAUR Laureate Education, Inc. 5.20 Bn 25.55 3.29 0.44 Bn
5 LOPE Grand Canyon Education, Inc. 4.62 Bn 21.85 4.23 0.11 Bn
6 LRN Stride, Inc. 3.61 Bn 11.32 1.43 0.56 Bn
7 ATGE Covista Inc. 3.46 Bn 13.66 1.83 0.73 Bn
8 PRDO PERDOCEO EDUCATION Corp 2.84 Bn 42.39 1.73 0.06 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 2.40 0.71
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 24.26 6.80
EV to Debt EV to Debt 5.72 11.15
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 46.75 112.78
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 27.36 6.48
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF -24.16 5.57
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.18 582,173.64
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 2.26 1.74
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 5.09 -3.80
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 66.96 -1.70
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.00 11.73
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 2.21
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.25
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 1.69
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 7.53 53.05
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -170.09 -82.12
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -75.02 25.11
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 0.00 0.54
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 42.68 -39.04
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 64.57 -34.79
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 51.97 -40.70
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 52.81 -52.53
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 40.62 -29.51
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -249.19 -36.51
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 21.42 -3.42
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 1.06 0.63
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 0.01
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.14 0.73
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 0.81 1.63
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.05 3.83
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 7.53 53.05
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 7.53 53.05
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 8.30 -30.62
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 4.84 -82.13
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 4.19 -47.07
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 60.30 50.48
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 2.90 -48.61