Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: GSBC)

Sector: Financial Services Industry: Banks - Regional CIK: 0000854560
Market Cap 709.22 Mn
P/B 1.12
P/E 10.19
P/S 3.10
ROIC (Qtr) 6.21
Div Yield % 3.35
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 8.14
Total Debt (Qtr) 504.26 Mn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.80

About

Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. (GSBC) is a bank holding company operating in the financial services industry, with a focus on expanding its offerings beyond those of its bank subsidiary. The company boasts a robust financial profile, with consolidated total assets of $5.81 billion, consolidated net loans of $4.59 billion, consolidated deposits of $4.72 billion, and consolidated total stockholders' equity of $571.8 million as of December 31, 2023. Great Southern Bancorp's main business activities revolve around originating various loans, including...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Strong tangible asset base of 5.73B provides 11.36x coverage of total debt 504.26M, indicating robust asset backing and low credit risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 69.68M provides strong 37.87x coverage of stock compensation 1.84M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Robust free cash flow of 60.33M exceeds capital expenditure of 9.35M by 6.45x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Retained earnings of 615.84M represent substantial 0.97x of equity 632.93M, indicating strong internal capital generation.
  • Operating cash flow of 69.68M provides strong 7.04x coverage of operating expenses 9.89M, showing operational efficiency.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 69.68M barely covers its investment activities of 255.70M, with a coverage ratio of 0.27, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 69.68M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (18.55M) with a -3.76 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Free cash flow of 60.33M represents just -0.49x of debt issuance (124.22M), suggesting concerning reliance on leverage rather than internal cash generation for growth.
  • Retained earnings of 615.84M provide limited buffer against comprehensive income items of (35.88M), which is -17.16x, indicating elevated exposure to market risks.
  • Operating cash flow of 69.68M is outpaced by equity issuance of (25.38M) (-2.75 ratio), indicating concerning reliance on equity markets for funding operations.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Banks - Regional
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 USB Us Bancorp \De\ 84.44 Bn 12.40 3.25 77.98 Bn
2 PNC Pnc Financial Services Group, Inc. 84.36 Bn 13.61 3.73 62.34 Bn
3 NU Nu Holdings Ltd. 81.47 Bn 32.21 5.79 4.49 Bn
4 NWG NatWest Group plc 66.53 Bn 9.88 3.05 169.04 Bn
5 TFC Truist Financial Corp 64.60 Bn 13.18 3.53 71.11 Bn
6 MTB M&T Bank Corp 32.73 Bn 12.47 3.60 14.99 Bn
7 FITB Fifth Third Bancorp 31.96 Bn 14.15 3.93 18.94 Bn
8 FCNCA First Citizens Bancshares Inc /De/ 28.98 Bn 12.78 3.26 40.00 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.16 0.14
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 13.24 7.21
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.83 5.20
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 10.75 14.98
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 9.78 8.92
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 15.29 8.87
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.30 1.04
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 4.03 -3.76
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 1.12 1.17
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 10.19 15.63
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 3.75 271.44
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 27.00 35.28
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 1.63 0.89
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 30.60 34.52
Interest Coverage Interest Coverage 0.00 -0.05
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -107.62 -73.15
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -5.82 15.78
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 1.87 5.32
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 15.98 110.93
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 13.74 38.80
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 16.10 61.46
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 16.10 61.37
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 17.74 76.34
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 38.41 161.72
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 6.50 14.15
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.04 0.04
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.23 0.26
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 0.00
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 0.01
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 0.80 0.53
Interest Cover Ratio Interest Cover Ratio 0.00 -0.05
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned 0.00 -0.05
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 41.20 147.97
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 37.52 155.41
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 37.52 154.66
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 100.00 97.82
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 30.40 115.63