Fair Isaac Corp (NYSE: FICO)

Sector: Technology Industry: Software - Application CIK: 0000814547
Market Cap 35.22 Bn
P/B -19.48
P/E 53.54
P/S 17.07
ROIC (Qtr) 59.08
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 16.36
Total Debt (Qtr) 3.21 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) -1.78

About

Fair Isaac Corporation, commonly known as FICO, is a leading applied analytics company that operates in the financial services industry. The company, which was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in San Jose, California, is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker symbol FICO. FICO's main business activities are focused on providing scores and software solutions to businesses and consumers. The company's scores, which are used to measure credit risk, are widely utilized in the financial services industry. FICO's software solutions,...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Robust free cash flow of 717.95M exceeds capital expenditure of 40.94M by 17.54x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Tangible assets of 1.07B provide exceptional 6.18x coverage of deferred revenue 173.37M, showing strong service capability backing.
  • Operating cash flow of 758.89M provides strong 4.38x coverage of deferred revenue 173.37M, indicating service delivery capability.
  • Operating cash flow of 758.89M provides solid 1.01x coverage of current liabilities 752.06M, showing strong operational health.
  • R&D investment of 193.11M represents healthy 1.11x of deferred revenue 173.37M, indicating strong future innovation pipeline.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 758.89M barely covers its investment activities of (47.51M), with a coverage ratio of -15.97, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Investment activities of (47.51M) provide weak support for R&D spending of 193.11M, which is -0.25x, suggesting potentially insufficient investment in innovation relative to other capital deployment.
  • The company's operating cash flow of 758.89M shows concerning coverage of stock compensation expenses of 160.28M, with a 4.73 ratio indicating potential earnings quality issues.
  • High financing cash flow of (739.59M) relative to working capital of (53.25M), which is 13.89x suggests concerning dependence on external funding for operational needs.
  • Retained earnings of 4.71B provide limited buffer against comprehensive income items of (92.12M), which is -51.14x, indicating elevated exposure to market risks.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Software - Application
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 SAP Sap Se 234.56 Bn 28.15 5.46 10.73 Bn
2 CRM Salesforce, Inc. 204.28 Bn 32.96 5.39 11.14 Bn
3 SHOP Shopify Inc. 169.36 Bn 95.09 15.83 1.12 Bn
4 UBER Uber Technologies, Inc 167.13 Bn 10.04 3.37 12.19 Bn
5 INTU Intuit Inc. 140.92 Bn 175.06 33.55 6.78 Bn
6 ADBE Adobe Inc. 124.98 Bn 17.53 5.26 6.65 Bn
7 NOW ServiceNow, Inc. 121.03 Bn 69.24 9.11 2.40 Bn
8 ADP Automatic Data Processing Inc 100.13 Bn 23.64 4.72 4.37 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 20.58 2.50
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 50.28 12.27
EV to Debt EV to Debt 11.87 50.31
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 38.52 10.96
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 38.01 16.84
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 53.15 14.08
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.08 -118.20
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 18.50 4.45
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B -19.48 4.27
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 53.54 -133.65
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.00 -3.97
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 4.25
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.15
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 2.54
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 6.78 -51.80
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -30.55 -210.77
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -12.06 9,906.83
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 0.00 1.62
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 21.41 -265.85
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 27.37 55.76
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 28.22 -227.83
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 27.64 -88.00
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 23.39 121.91
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) 6.60 -40.82
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 20.08 92.11
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 1.11 0.58
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 0.02
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.22 3.77
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 0.93 8.19
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) -1.78 0.16
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 6.78 -51.80
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 6.78 -51.80
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 49.20 -105.77
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 48.02 -131.65
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 40.93 -122.72
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 82.90 58.14
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 31.90 -127.70