Etsy Inc (NYSE: ETSY)

Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Internet Retail CIK: 0001370637
Market Cap 6.82 Bn
P/B -6.13
P/E 37.43
P/S 2.39
ROIC (Qtr) 12.23
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 2.36
Total Debt (Qtr) 3.08 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) -2.76

About

Etsy Inc., widely known as Etsy, operates in the e-commerce industry, connecting millions of buyers and sellers through its online marketplaces. The company's primary marketplace, Etsy.com, serves as a global platform for unique and creative goods crafted by independent sellers. Etsy's business model revolves around facilitating connections between sellers and buyers, enabling transactions, and earning fees for its services. The company's main business activities include operating two-sided online marketplaces, fostering transactions, and providing...

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Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Healthy cash reserves of 1.25B provide 1045.03x coverage of short-term debt 1.20M, demonstrating strong liquidity position and minimal refinancing risk.
  • Operating cash flow of 691.25M provides exceptional 29.71x coverage of interest expenses 23.26M, showing strong debt service capability.
  • Robust free cash flow of 635.36M exceeds capital expenditure of 55.89M by 11.37x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Tangible assets of 2.31B provide exceptional 90.22x coverage of deferred revenue 25.61M, showing strong service capability backing.
  • Operating cash flow of 691.25M provides strong 26.99x coverage of deferred revenue 25.61M, indicating service delivery capability.

Bear case

  • Investment activities of 15.19M provide weak support for R&D spending of 447.22M, which is 0.03x, suggesting potentially insufficient investment in innovation relative to other capital deployment.
  • The company's operating cash flow of 691.25M shows concerning coverage of stock compensation expenses of 249.54M, with a 2.77 ratio indicating potential earnings quality issues.
  • Operating cash flow of 691.25M is outpaced by equity issuance of (887.85M) (-0.78 ratio), indicating concerning reliance on equity markets for funding operations.
  • Fixed assets of 231.82M showing 2.24x ratio to depreciation of 103.35M indicates aging infrastructure requiring significant near-term capital investment.
  • Tangible assets of 2.31B provide limited backing for working capital of 1.23B, which is 1.88x, suggesting increased operational risk in market downturns.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Internet Retail
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 AMZN Amazon Com Inc 2,526.56 Bn 33.03 3.65 135.42 Bn
2 BABA Alibaba Group Holding Ltd 395.87 Bn 22.47 2.79 39.55 Bn
3 PDD PDD Holdings Inc. 149.89 Bn 10.44 2.55 1.50 Bn
4 MELI Mercadolibre Inc 106.40 Bn 51.23 4.06 9.88 Bn
5 DASH DoorDash, Inc. 88.88 Bn 103.00 7.03 3.26 Bn
6 SE Sea Ltd 73.28 Bn 51.67 3.48 4.24 Bn
7 EBAY Ebay Inc 64.91 Bn 5.04 6.46 7.02 Bn
8 JD JD.com, Inc. 42.35 Bn 9.36 0.23 15.74 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 3.28 1.64
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 12.60 10.76
EV to Debt EV to Debt 2.83 18.39
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 27.96 20.59
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 22.03 20.75
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 13.71 16.58
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.28 -3.15
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 3.05 -4.05
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B -6.13 5.50
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 37.43 36.85
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Dividend Coverage Ratio 0.00 -93.84
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 -203.90
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.08
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 -3.46
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 13.39 -1,581.43
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -22.58 -39.45
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 52.75 53.91
Dividend Growth (1y) % Dividend Growth (1y) % 0.00 1.00
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -27.73 37.93
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -11.22 -62.59
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -14.08 8.33
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -15.62 -10.66
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -22.02 13.44
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -7.52 -46.02
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 3.54 23.19
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 1.08 1.17
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 -0.04
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 2.21 2.14
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 3.17 3.56
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) -2.76 0.52
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 13.39 -1,581.43
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 13.39 -1,581.43
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 14.50 4.40
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 10.91 -36.99
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 10.10 -40.80
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 72.00 44.74
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 6.40 -40.62