Carlyle Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CG)

Sector: Financial Services Industry: Asset Management CIK: 0001527166
Market Cap 2.87 Bn
P/B 4.19
P/E 20.39
P/S 0.61
ROIC (Qtr) -0.17
Div Yield % 4.41
Rev 1y % (Qtr) -87.37
Total Debt (Qtr) 12.66 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.25
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About

Carlyle Group Inc., also known as The Carlyle Group, is a global investment firm with a diverse range of business segments, including Global Private Equity, Global Credit, and Global Investment Solutions. The company manages over $426 billion in assets under management (AUM) as of December 31, 2023, and has a presence in 28 offices across four continents. The Carlyle Group's Global Private Equity (GPE) segment advises buyout, growth, real estate, infrastructure, and natural resources funds. The segment's investment approach is characterized by...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Robust free cash flow of 535.20M exceeds capital expenditure of 84.10M by 6.36x, indicating strong organic growth funding capability.
  • Tangible assets of 26.52B provide exceptional 71.09x coverage of deferred revenue 373M, showing strong service capability backing.
  • Cash position of 3.26B provides exceptional 19.75x coverage of minority interest expenses 165M, indicating strong liquidity.
  • Operating cash flow of 619.30M provides strong 7.67x coverage of tax liabilities 80.70M, showing excellent fiscal position.
  • Cash reserves of 3.26B provide comfortable 40.38x coverage of tax obligations 80.70M, showing strong fiscal management.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 619.30M barely covers its investment activities of (84.10M), with a coverage ratio of -7.36, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 619.30M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (504.40M) with a -1.23 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • The company's operating cash flow of 619.30M shows concerning coverage of stock compensation expenses of 399.90M, with a 1.55 ratio indicating potential earnings quality issues.
  • Operating cash flow of 619.30M barely covers operating expenses of 587.80M with a 1.05 ratio, suggesting thin operational efficiency margins and limited flexibility.
  • Tax assets of 28.30M provide limited offset against tax liabilities of 80.70M, which is 0.35x, indicating potential future cash flow pressure from tax obligations.

Legal Entity Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2024)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Asset Management
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 BLK BlackRock, Inc. 199.59 Bn 85.40 21.98 15.04 Bn
2 BN BROOKFIELD Corp /ON/ 103.94 Bn 31.52 5.64 262.97 Bn
3 AMP Ameriprise Financial Inc 88.69 Bn 55.02 7.20 5.89 Bn
4 BX Blackstone Inc. 88.51 Bn 49.39 10.93 12.89 Bn
5 KKR KKR & Co. Inc. 55.86 Bn 28.33 13.23 53.12 Bn
6 STT State Street Corp 46.52 Bn 21.77 3.91 34.72 Bn
7 NTRS Northern Trust Corp 34.14 Bn 33.31 6.71 15.64 Bn
8 RJF Raymond James Financial Inc 32.89 Bn 37.63 4.14 5.10 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.62 0.94
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 5.65 41.10
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.32 15.28
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 17.15 23.47
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 17.15 47.80
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 5.70 38.62
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 5.82 7.81
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 3.57 27.38
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 4.19 2.34
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 20.39 11.81
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 1.31 4.66
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 76.10 -5.56
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 1.40 1.73
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 94.21 49.83
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 7.93 25.16
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -23.68 -35.10
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) 74.52 15.43
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 0.00 1.65
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) 305.36 -90.82
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) 75.75 35.24
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) 174.06 -22.13
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) 280.63 -163.05
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) 425.71 -20.61
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -49.19 220.21
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 29.52 -53.96
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.14 0.22
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.72 0.36
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio 0.00 0.38
Current Ratio Current Ratio 0.00 0.86
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.25 0.70
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 7.93 25.16
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 7.93 25.16
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 28.20 -114.76
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 23.34 -127.24
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 20.40 -150.97
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 55.50 67.88
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 16.90 -148.68