Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc (NASDAQ: CBRL)

Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Restaurants CIK: 0001067294
Market Cap 573.04 Mn
P/B 1.34
P/E 33.88
P/S 0.17
ROIC (Qtr) 0.64
Div Yield % 3.88
Rev 1y % (Qtr) -5.67
Total Debt (Qtr) 1.18 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.76

About

Price action

Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 169.86M provides strong 20.73x coverage of stock compensation 8.20M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Operating cash flow of 169.86M fully covers other non-current liabilities 95.53M by 1.78x, showing strong long-term stability.
  • Tangible assets of 2.13B provide robust 7.41x coverage of other current liabilities 287.02M, indicating strong asset backing.
  • Retained earnings of 420.85M represent substantial 0.98x of equity 428.77M, indicating strong internal capital generation.
  • Retained earnings of 420.85M provide strong 17.30x coverage of intangibles 24.33M, indicating quality earnings retention.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 169.86M barely covers its investment activities of (152.04M), with a coverage ratio of -1.12, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • With cash reserves of 8.94M against inventory of 209.15M, the 0.04 cash-to-inventory ratio suggests potential liquidity risks if inventory turnover slows, particularly concerning given current supply chain volatilities.
  • Operating cash flow of 169.86M provides thin coverage of dividend payments of (23.26M) with a -7.30 ratio, suggesting potential dividend sustainability issues if operational performance deteriorates.
  • Operating cash flow of 169.86M provides minimal -10.02x coverage of tax expenses of (16.96M), suggesting potential tax planning inefficiencies or unsustainable tax positions.
  • Free cash flow of 16.07M provides weak coverage of capital expenditures of 153.80M, with a 0.10 ratio suggesting additional external financing needs for growth initiatives.

Peer comparison

Companies in the Restaurants
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 MCD Mcdonalds Corp 222.05 Bn 26.39 8.45 55.82 Bn
2 SBUX Starbucks Corp 95.51 Bn 51.45 2.57 26.61 Bn
3 CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc 50.94 Bn 33.15 4.32 4.98 Bn
4 YUM Yum Brands Inc 43.17 Bn 29.83 5.36 11.55 Bn
5 QSR Restaurant Brands International Inc. 22.43 Bn 24.33 2.42 15.64 Bn
6 DRI Darden Restaurants Inc 21.91 Bn 19.91 1.77 6.16 Bn
7 YUMC Yum China Holdings, Inc. 18.12 Bn 20.05 1.57 1.84 Bn
8 DPZ Dominos Pizza Inc 14.57 Bn 24.72 3.01 5.05 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.80 2.05
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 10.08 16.57
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.45 4.75
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 93.37 3.45
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 8.59 9.76
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF 106.62 29.06
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 2.99 6.55
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 0.50 2.40
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 1.34 -1.40
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 33.88 13.35
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.73 -9.56
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 131.60 18.72
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 1.00 0.84
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 138.70 30.41
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 1.00 -86.85
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -10.41 -24.56
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -22.52 35.50
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) -67.74 -0.72
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -8,233.12 -564.81
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -6.91 25.78
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -55.01 -507.68
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -100.23 -41.98
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -58.24 -126.51
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -60.89 5,724.78
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) -1.49 23.70
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 1.60 0.99
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.07 0.07
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.02 0.78
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 0.52 1.47
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 2.76 0.05
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 1.00 -86.85
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 1.00 -86.85
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 5.90 7.71
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 0.53 -2.27
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 0.00 -1.97
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 68.80 34.04
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 0.50 -3.69