Recession Probability was last reported at 0.62 % as of August 1, 2026. That is up 158.33% from the prior reading of 0.24 %. This indicator is reported Monthly and not seasonally adjusted, and is tracked under the Cycle category. The next scheduled release is November 2, 2026.
| Date | Value (%) |
|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | 0.62 |
| Jul 2026 | 0.76 |
| Jun 2026 | 0.56 |
| May 2026 | 0.54 |
| Apr 2026 | 0.46 |
| Mar 2026 | 0.54 |
| Feb 2026 | 0.52 |
| Jan 2026 | 0.64 |
| Dec 2025 | 0.56 |
| Nov 2025 | 0.86 |
| Date | Value (%) |
|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | 1.58 |
| Sep 2025 | 1.32 |
| Aug 2025 | 1.12 |
| Jul 2025 | 0.58 |
| Jun 2025 | 0.68 |
| May 2025 | 0.82 |
| Apr 2025 | 0.68 |
| Mar 2025 | 0.50 |
| Feb 2025 | 0.48 |
| Jan 2025 | 0.80 |
Pull the full history of Recession Probability into your own models, spreadsheets and apps with the
free Business Quant Economic Data API. Swap YOUR_API_KEY for your own key.
https://data.businessquant.com/economic?code=USRECPROB&period=max&api_key=YOUR_API_KEYimport requests
url = "https://data.businessquant.com/economic"
params = {"code": "USRECPROB", "period": "max", "api_key": "YOUR_API_KEY"}
data = requests.get(url, params=params).json()const res = await fetch("https://data.businessquant.com/economic?code=USRECPROB&period=max&api_key=YOUR_API_KEY");
const data = await res.json();