Recession Probability (USRECPROB)

Cycle NSA Monthly Scheduled
0.54 %
▲ 0.28 %  (+107.69%)
As of May 1, 2026
Prior Value0.26 %
Last ReleaseJul 1, 2026
Next ReleaseAug 3, 2026Releases in 2 days
FrequencyMonthly
AdjustmentNot Seasonally Adjusted
Indicator ID#1169

Recession Probability: Analysis & Trends

Recession Probability was last reported at 0.54 % as of May 1, 2026. That is up 107.69% from the prior reading of 0.26 %. This indicator is reported Monthly and not seasonally adjusted, and is tracked under the Cycle category. The next scheduled release is August 3, 2026.

Historic Chart

Historic Data

DateValue (%)
May 2026 0.54
Apr 2026 0.26
Mar 2026 0.32
Feb 2026 0.16
Jan 2026 0.18
Dec 2025 0.12
Nov 2025 0.48
Oct 2025 1.16
Sep 2025 0.92
Aug 2025 0.82
Jul 2025 0.20
Jun 2025 0.16
May 2025 0.54
Apr 2025 0.32
Mar 2025 0.12
Feb 2025 0.10
Jan 2025 0.38
Dec 2024 0.10
Nov 2024 0.18
Oct 2024 0.28
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