Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS) Stock Analysis and Metrics

Sector: Technology Industry: Information Technology Services CIK: 0001336920

Market Cap 15.80 Bn

P/E 11.28

P/S 0.91

Div. Yield 0.01

ROIC (Qtr) 0.00

Total Debt (Qtr) 6.33 Bn

Revenue Growth (1y) (Qtr) 3.65

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About

Leidos Holdings, Inc. is a holding company whose principal operating subsidiary Leidos Inc delivers science research and engineering solutions to address complex problems of global concern. Founded in 1969 by physicist Dr Robert Beyster the company is headquartered in Reston Virginia and employs approximately 47000 people worldwide. Leidos serves federal government agencies and commercial customers by providing technology enabled services software products and integrated systems across five growth pillars space and maritime energy infrastructure...

Leidos Holdings, Inc. is a holding company whose principal operating subsidiary Leidos Inc delivers science research and engineering solutions to address complex problems of global concern. Founded in 1969 by physicist Dr Robert Beyster the company is headquartered in Reston Virginia and employs approximately 47000 people worldwide. Leidos serves federal government agencies and commercial customers by providing technology enabled services software products and integrated systems across five growth pillars space and maritime energy infrastructure digital modernization and cyber mission software and managed health services. The firm applies expertise in multiple disciplines to securely deliver solutions that meet current mission goals and support future objectives.

Leidos generates revenue primarily through contracts with the United States government which accounted for about 87 percent of total revenue in fiscal 2025 while approximately 8 percent came from entities located outside the United States. The company offers a wide array of services including digital modernization and transformation mission software multi domain solutions cyber operations intelligence analysis mission support and global logistics managed health services transportation solutions health mission software energy and environment life sciences research and development energy infrastructure global security products and services and defense systems spanning space airborne land and maritime domains. These services are delivered under various contract types such as cost reimbursement time and materials fixed price and firm fixed price arrangements.

The company operates through the following segments National Security & Digital Health & Civil Commercial & International and Defense Systems.

• National Security & Digital provides leading edge services solutions and products to substantially all U S federal government customers. Its capabilities include digital modernization and transformation which designs develops implements protects and maintains IT environments to deliver stability security and flexibility for mission needs. It also offers mission software that uses artificial intelligence tools for defense intelligence and homeland security customers. Multi domain solutions employ artificial intelligence and machine learning to coordinate sea ground air and space operations and provide warfighters with timely information for mission advantage. Cyber operations deliver full spectrum cyber solutions including offensive defensive and physical cyber operations and global scale cryptographic management to protect critical information and assets. Intelligence analysis mission support and global logistics services supply intelligence analysis operational support logistics security linguistics force production biometrics chemical biological radiological nuclear and explosives energetics training and other services to Intelligence Community customers.

• Health & Civil delivers services and solutions to federal and commercial customers in the areas of public health care coordination life and environment sciences and transportation. Its core capabilities include managed health services which deploys a national footprint of health clinics and providers to support care delivery including medical disability and behavioral health examinations for the Department of Veterans Affairs and other independent medical exam markets. Transportation Solutions provides air traffic control systems and automation services to air navigation service providers worldwide including the Federal Aviation Administration. Health Mission Software supplies a single common electronic health record to Department of War and Veterans Affairs hospitals and treatment facilities worldwide. Energy and Environment supports the missions of the Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration and National Science Foundation through infrastructure management operation information technology support applied research and education outreach. Life Sciences Research and Development provides research and development support to the National Institutes of Health Centers for Disease Control Army Medical Research community and commercial biotechnology companies through leading edge laboratories in genetics genomics proteins proteomics advanced biomedical computing information technology biopharmaceutical development manufacturing nanotechnology characterization and clinical trials management.

• Commercial & International delivers a portfolio of products services and solutions aimed at securing national assets modernizing energy and critical infrastructure and enhancing mission outcomes. Its key customers include Investor Owned Utilities government agencies in the United Kingdom and Australia the Transportation Security Administration U S Customs and Border Protection as well as airports ports and borders authorities. Energy Infrastructure partners with utilities seeking reliable energy modernization solutions and supports electric utilities generation owners and industrial clients in modernizing power delivery systems implementing energy management strategies advancing vehicle electrification transforming digital infrastructure and optimizing operational efficiency. Global Security Products and Services provides fully integrated security detection solutions that enhance the safety of screening and checkpoints for aviation ports borders and critical infrastructure worldwide with more than 30000 products deployed across over 120 countries including people scanners computed tomography carry on baggage scanners checked baggage scanners and explosive trace detectors. It also serves as the primary supplier to U S Customs and Border Protection and other international customers of mobile non intrusive ports and borders inspection systems that secure the flow of travel and trade by detecting and mitigating threats across cargo vehicles and individuals. International delivers mission focused services across multiple domains to address critical threats and provide innovative solutions to government agencies in the United Kingdom and Australia with core expertise in digital modernization mission software logistics and airborne solutions.

• Defense Systems addresses threats facing the nation by rapidly prototyping and delivering advanced hardware software and integrated systems solutions for the Department of War Army Navy Air Force Space Force Marine Corps United States Special Operations Command Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and intelligence agencies. Its operations span the space airborne land and maritime domains. Maritime Systems provides innovative platforms software solutions for vessel control and common core autonomous behaviors enhanced sensor systems advanced signal processing secure communications hardware and software to support surface and subsurface autonomous and unmanned maritime operations. Aerospace Systems supplies expertise in the design manufacturing and integration of space based electro optic infrared multi hyperspectral electronic warfare signals intelligence and communications payloads and manufactures structures and thermal protection systems for hypersonic boost glide missiles while providing testing services for hypersonic vehicles. Land Systems develops integrated air and missile defense systems including the Army Enduring Indirect Fire Protection Capability Army Long Range Persistent Surveillance radar capability and AirShield systems and designs and manufactures other persistent surveillance radar systems advanced sensors and radio frequency seekers with associated advanced algorithms to provide military sensor and electronic system research and development services. Airborne Systems develops and integrates mission enhancing airborne solutions executing airborne training intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance missions as a service for the Department of War the U S Intelligence Community and military services worldwide with key served markets in aircraft integration and operations sensor and autonomous systems and multi domain operation enablers addressing diverse missions such as target identification border security and counter narcotics operations.

Leidos holds a strong position as an industry and technology leader in the government services and aerospace and defense sectors. The company competes with large established firms such as Accenture Federal Services LLC Amentum Services Inc KBR Inc BAE Systems Booz Allen Hamilton Inc CACI International Inc Deloitte General Dynamics Corporation GovCIO IBM L3Harris Technologies Inc Lockheed Martin Corporation ManTech Northrop Grumman Corporation Optum Parsons Corporation Peraton Inc RTX Corporation SAIC and many smaller specialized contractors. Its competitive advantages stem from a proven track record of delivering mission critical solutions deep expertise in science research and engineering robust cybersecurity and compliance practices a reliable supply chain effective data management and the ability to integrate commercial technologies and artificial intelligence at scale. Leidos also benefits from a workforce with high levels of security clearances and a focus on mission understanding and qualified staff retention.

Leidos customer base is heavily weighted toward United States government agencies with the majority of revenue derived from prime contracts or subcontracts for the Department of War the Intelligence Community the Department of Homeland Security the Federal Aviation Administration the Department of Veterans Affairs the Department of Health and Human Services the National Science Foundation the Department of Energy the Environmental Protection Agency the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency. International customers include the United Kingdom Ministry of Defence the Australian Department of Defence NATO and various commercial entities such as Investor Owned Utilities airports ports and borders authorities and the Transportation Security Administration and U S Customs and Border Protection. The company also serves a range of state and local government agencies and foreign government bodies across its diversified contract portfolio.

Investment thesis

Bull case

Leidos’ 2025 results demonstrate a resilient operating model that balances high‑margin defense work with a diversified commercial footprint, creating a moat that is difficult for competitors to erode. The company’s adjusted EBITDA margin rose 120 basis points to 14.1%, and book‑to‑bill consistently held at 1.3, signaling healthy demand that is being translated into actual revenue. Management’s emphasis on the North Star 2030 strategy—realigning the organization into four segments and investing heavily in core growth pillars—offers a clear blueprint for capturing emerging opportunities across cyber, intelligence, space, and energy. The pipeline of award wins, including the Air Force’s $2.2 billion passive radar contract and the Department of Defense’s $151 billion SHIELD IDIQ, illustrates the firm’s ability to win large, long‑term, multi‑year agreements that will support sustained revenue growth. By tripling capital expenditures to $350 million in 2026, Leidos is poised to scale production capacity for critical defense systems such as the IFPIC interceptor and hypersonic platforms, positioning the company to capture significant market share as the U.S. military upgrades its arsenal. The strategic acquisition of Entrust Solutions Group is expected to be margin‑accretive, bringing a high‑growth, engineering‑centric business that dovetails with Leidos’ existing capabilities in systems integration and cyber. The company’s robust free‑cash‑flow generation—$1.63 billion in 2025 and a projected $1.75 billion in 2026—provides a cushion to fund growth, support a strong dividend, and fund opportunistic acquisitions without jeopardizing balance‑sheet health. Finally, Leidos’ leadership transition, highlighted by the appointment of Ted Tanner as Chief Technology Officer and Will Johnson as Enterprise Transformation Leader, signals a renewed focus on AI and process optimization that should accelerate cost efficiencies and spur higher‑value service offerings.
The health and civil segment, despite a 9.3 % decline in 2025, presents a long‑term tailwind that the firm is actively developing. Managed Health Services (MHS) is scaling rapidly in rural care and behavioral health, where federal spending is expanding and reimbursement models are shifting toward value‑based care. Leidos’ partnership with the Department of War and the Veterans Administration gives it first‑mover advantage in this space, and the firm has already demonstrated success in reducing veteran wait times by 60 %. This experience positions Leidos to capture a significant share of the $200 billion federal health IT market, which is projected to grow at 6 % annually. Management’s commitment to investing $350 million in 2026 will further accelerate the digital modernization of health records, improving data analytics and enabling more efficient service delivery, which should translate into higher profit margins over the next five years. Additionally, the firm’s cross‑sell opportunities across the health and civil segment—such as integrating cyber capabilities into health IT systems—will create synergies that further enhance revenue and margin prospects.
Leidos’ focus on zero‑trust architecture and multi‑cloud brokering, as demonstrated by the Air Force Cloud One contract, positions the company at the forefront of the federal cybersecurity transformation. The U.S. Department of Defense is increasing its budget for cyber capabilities, and the adoption of zero‑trust models is accelerating across agencies. Leidos’ early investments in cyber—particularly through the Kudu Dynamics acquisition—have positioned the firm to win new, high‑value contracts that demand advanced threat detection and automated response. The firm’s ability to blend commercial cloud technologies with rigorous security requirements gives it a unique competitive edge over traditional defense contractors that rely on legacy solutions. Furthermore, the company’s ongoing AI initiatives, led by its Enterprise Transformation office, are expected to reduce development times and costs for cyber products, creating a lower cost base and higher margin opportunities. As federal agencies seek to modernize their IT infrastructure, Leidos is well‑placed to be the preferred partner for integrating zero‑trust frameworks into mission‑critical systems.
Leidos’ strategic divestiture of Barrick and acquisition of Entrust represent a disciplined focus on high‑growth, high‑margin businesses, thereby improving the overall portfolio mix. Barrick was a legacy energy asset that generated lower margins, whereas Entrust brings a track record of consistent profitability and an opportunity to become a leader in power engineering and design. The integration of Entrust should provide immediate cross‑sell revenue opportunities with existing defense and homeland security customers, leveraging shared engineering platforms and joint customer relationships. Additionally, the synergies realized from the acquisition are expected to produce cost savings in procurement, engineering, and project management, which will improve Leidos’ operating leverage. By concentrating on high‑margin segments, the company will enhance its resilience against cyclical defense spending swings and position itself for stronger growth trajectories through 2030.
Leidos’ commitment to maintaining a healthy balance sheet—leveraged at 1.9 times gross debt to adjusted EBITDA in 2025, projected to be 2.6 times post‑Entrust acquisition—provides ample liquidity for future growth initiatives. The company’s free cash flow of $1.63 billion in 2025 and projected $1.75 billion in 2026 demonstrates its ability to fund capital expenditures without resorting to high‑yield debt. The firm’s share repurchase program and dividend policy reinforce shareholder value creation, while its planned capital raise of $1.4 billion in bonds is structured to keep leverage within acceptable limits. The ability to refinance debt on favorable terms, thanks to a strong credit profile, further ensures financial flexibility. This robust financial footing supports Leidos’ strategy to pursue opportunistic M&A, invest in AI, and expand into emerging domains such as space and undersea warfare.

Leidos’ 2025 results demonstrate a resilient operating model that balances high‑margin defense work with a diversified commercial footprint, creating a moat that is difficult for competitors to erode. The company’s adjusted EBITDA margin rose 120 basis points to 14.1%, and book‑to‑bill consistently held at 1.3, signaling healthy demand that is being translated into actual revenue. Management’s emphasis on the North Star 2030 strategy—realigning the organization into four segments and investing heavily in core growth pillars—offers a clear blueprint for capturing emerging opportunities across cyber, intelligence, space, and energy. The pipeline of award wins, including the Air Force’s $2.2 billion passive radar contract and the Department of Defense’s $151 billion SHIELD IDIQ, illustrates the firm’s ability to win large, long‑term, multi‑year agreements that will support sustained revenue growth. By tripling capital expenditures to $350 million in 2026, Leidos is poised to scale production capacity for critical defense systems such as the IFPIC interceptor and hypersonic platforms, positioning the company to capture significant market share as the U.S. military upgrades its arsenal. The strategic acquisition of Entrust Solutions Group is expected to be margin‑accretive, bringing a high‑growth, engineering‑centric business that dovetails with Leidos’ existing capabilities in systems integration and cyber. The company’s robust free‑cash‑flow generation—$1.63 billion in 2025 and a projected $1.75 billion in 2026—provides a cushion to fund growth, support a strong dividend, and fund opportunistic acquisitions without jeopardizing balance‑sheet health. Finally, Leidos’ leadership transition, highlighted by the appointment of Ted Tanner as Chief Technology Officer and Will Johnson as Enterprise Transformation Leader, signals a renewed focus on AI and process optimization that should accelerate cost efficiencies and spur higher‑value service offerings.
The health and civil segment, despite a 9.3 % decline in 2025, presents a long‑term tailwind that the firm is actively developing. Managed Health Services (MHS) is scaling rapidly in rural care and behavioral health, where federal spending is expanding and reimbursement models are shifting toward value‑based care. Leidos’ partnership with the Department of War and the Veterans Administration gives it first‑mover advantage in this space, and the firm has already demonstrated success in reducing veteran wait times by 60 %. This experience positions Leidos to capture a significant share of the $200 billion federal health IT market, which is projected to grow at 6 % annually. Management’s commitment to investing $350 million in 2026 will further accelerate the digital modernization of health records, improving data analytics and enabling more efficient service delivery, which should translate into higher profit margins over the next five years. Additionally, the firm’s cross‑sell opportunities across the health and civil segment—such as integrating cyber capabilities into health IT systems—will create synergies that further enhance revenue and margin prospects.
Leidos’ focus on zero‑trust architecture and multi‑cloud brokering, as demonstrated by the Air Force Cloud One contract, positions the company at the forefront of the federal cybersecurity transformation. The U.S. Department of Defense is increasing its budget for cyber capabilities, and the adoption of zero‑trust models is accelerating across agencies. Leidos’ early investments in cyber—particularly through the Kudu Dynamics acquisition—have positioned the firm to win new, high‑value contracts that demand advanced threat detection and automated response. The firm’s ability to blend commercial cloud technologies with rigorous security requirements gives it a unique competitive edge over traditional defense contractors that rely on legacy solutions. Furthermore, the company’s ongoing AI initiatives, led by its Enterprise Transformation office, are expected to reduce development times and costs for cyber products, creating a lower cost base and higher margin opportunities. As federal agencies seek to modernize their IT infrastructure, Leidos is well‑placed to be the preferred partner for integrating zero‑trust frameworks into mission‑critical systems.
Leidos’ strategic divestiture of Barrick and acquisition of Entrust represent a disciplined focus on high‑growth, high‑margin businesses, thereby improving the overall portfolio mix. Barrick was a legacy energy asset that generated lower margins, whereas Entrust brings a track record of consistent profitability and an opportunity to become a leader in power engineering and design. The integration of Entrust should provide immediate cross‑sell revenue opportunities with existing defense and homeland security customers, leveraging shared engineering platforms and joint customer relationships. Additionally, the synergies realized from the acquisition are expected to produce cost savings in procurement, engineering, and project management, which will improve Leidos’ operating leverage. By concentrating on high‑margin segments, the company will enhance its resilience against cyclical defense spending swings and position itself for stronger growth trajectories through 2030.
Leidos’ commitment to maintaining a healthy balance sheet—leveraged at 1.9 times gross debt to adjusted EBITDA in 2025, projected to be 2.6 times post‑Entrust acquisition—provides ample liquidity for future growth initiatives. The company’s free cash flow of $1.63 billion in 2025 and projected $1.75 billion in 2026 demonstrates its ability to fund capital expenditures without resorting to high‑yield debt. The firm’s share repurchase program and dividend policy reinforce shareholder value creation, while its planned capital raise of $1.4 billion in bonds is structured to keep leverage within acceptable limits. The ability to refinance debt on favorable terms, thanks to a strong credit profile, further ensures financial flexibility. This robust financial footing supports Leidos’ strategy to pursue opportunistic M&A, invest in AI, and expand into emerging domains such as space and undersea warfare.

Bear case

Leidos remains heavily exposed to the cyclical nature of federal procurement, and any future government shutdowns or budgetary delays could impose a significant negative impact on order flow and revenue. The company’s Q4 2025 revenue decline of 3.6 % was largely attributed to a six‑week shutdown, and management acknowledged that the same risk could recur, potentially eroding the recently achieved momentum. The firm’s reliance on long‑term IDIQs, which are not reflected in current backlog figures, introduces uncertainty around future revenue recognition and may create gaps between projected earnings guidance and actual cash flows if task orders are delayed. This cyclical exposure makes Leidos vulnerable to policy changes and fiscal uncertainty that can disrupt contract award cycles.
Leidos’ aggressive capital expenditure plan for 2026, tripling to $350 million, raises concerns about dilution of free cash flow and the potential need for additional debt financing. While the company currently has a leverage ratio of 1.9, the post‑Entrust acquisition pro‑forma leverage is projected at 2.6, leaving less room for margin expansion if market conditions deteriorate or if cost overruns occur. The increased cap‑ex may strain cash flows, especially if defense budgets are tightened or if the firm underperforms on large programs such as IFPIC or hypersonic projects. A higher debt burden could also limit flexibility in pursuing future M&A opportunities or in navigating unexpected downturns.
Management’s response to questions about the actual impact of IDIQs on revenue and the conversion of those awards into cash flow is evasive, suggesting limited transparency around potential upside or downside in the near term. The company’s guidance explicitly excludes Golden Dome, SHIELD, and microelectronics IDIQs from the backlog, indicating that these awards are not guaranteed revenue streams. Investors may overestimate the value of these programs, leading to an overvaluation of Leidos if the conversion rate is lower than expected. The lack of concrete details on task order frequency and pricing further compounds the risk of revenue volatility.
Leidos’ health and civil segment, while showing potential for future growth, currently suffers from lower margins and a 9.3 % decline in 2025 revenue, reflecting intense competition and pricing pressure from other federal health IT vendors. The segment’s reliance on the Department of Defense and Veterans Administration creates a concentration risk, and any shift in agency procurement policies or budget cuts could exacerbate revenue erosion. Additionally, the segment’s transition to a sustainment phase for electronic health records may limit growth prospects, and the firm may face challenges in monetizing innovations without clear reimbursement models. This weak performance signals that the health business may not deliver the projected margin improvement expected by 2030.
The company’s ambitious acquisition strategy, while aimed at accelerating growth, carries integration risk, particularly with Entrust, which operates in a distinct engineering and power sector. Successful integration will require seamless alignment of corporate cultures, processes, and technology platforms, and any missteps could erode expected synergies and create operational disruption. Furthermore, the acquisition cost of $2.4 billion, financed with $1.4 billion in new bonds, could put upward pressure on Leidos’ interest expense if interest rates rise or if the firm’s credit profile deteriorates. Misaligned cost structures or failure to realize projected cross‑sell opportunities may leave the acquisition as a negative contributor to earnings.

Leidos remains heavily exposed to the cyclical nature of federal procurement, and any future government shutdowns or budgetary delays could impose a significant negative impact on order flow and revenue. The company’s Q4 2025 revenue decline of 3.6 % was largely attributed to a six‑week shutdown, and management acknowledged that the same risk could recur, potentially eroding the recently achieved momentum. The firm’s reliance on long‑term IDIQs, which are not reflected in current backlog figures, introduces uncertainty around future revenue recognition and may create gaps between projected earnings guidance and actual cash flows if task orders are delayed. This cyclical exposure makes Leidos vulnerable to policy changes and fiscal uncertainty that can disrupt contract award cycles.
Leidos’ aggressive capital expenditure plan for 2026, tripling to $350 million, raises concerns about dilution of free cash flow and the potential need for additional debt financing. While the company currently has a leverage ratio of 1.9, the post‑Entrust acquisition pro‑forma leverage is projected at 2.6, leaving less room for margin expansion if market conditions deteriorate or if cost overruns occur. The increased cap‑ex may strain cash flows, especially if defense budgets are tightened or if the firm underperforms on large programs such as IFPIC or hypersonic projects. A higher debt burden could also limit flexibility in pursuing future M&A opportunities or in navigating unexpected downturns.
Management’s response to questions about the actual impact of IDIQs on revenue and the conversion of those awards into cash flow is evasive, suggesting limited transparency around potential upside or downside in the near term. The company’s guidance explicitly excludes Golden Dome, SHIELD, and microelectronics IDIQs from the backlog, indicating that these awards are not guaranteed revenue streams. Investors may overestimate the value of these programs, leading to an overvaluation of Leidos if the conversion rate is lower than expected. The lack of concrete details on task order frequency and pricing further compounds the risk of revenue volatility.
Leidos’ health and civil segment, while showing potential for future growth, currently suffers from lower margins and a 9.3 % decline in 2025 revenue, reflecting intense competition and pricing pressure from other federal health IT vendors. The segment’s reliance on the Department of Defense and Veterans Administration creates a concentration risk, and any shift in agency procurement policies or budget cuts could exacerbate revenue erosion. Additionally, the segment’s transition to a sustainment phase for electronic health records may limit growth prospects, and the firm may face challenges in monetizing innovations without clear reimbursement models. This weak performance signals that the health business may not deliver the projected margin improvement expected by 2030.
The company’s ambitious acquisition strategy, while aimed at accelerating growth, carries integration risk, particularly with Entrust, which operates in a distinct engineering and power sector. Successful integration will require seamless alignment of corporate cultures, processes, and technology platforms, and any missteps could erode expected synergies and create operational disruption. Furthermore, the acquisition cost of $2.4 billion, financed with $1.4 billion in new bonds, could put upward pressure on Leidos’ interest expense if interest rates rise or if the firm’s credit profile deteriorates. Misaligned cost structures or failure to realize projected cross‑sell opportunities may leave the acquisition as a negative contributor to earnings.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2026)

Contract with Customer, Basis of Pricing Breakdown of Revenue (2026)

Peer comparison

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Research Tools

Leidos Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: LDOS)

About

Investment thesis

Bull case

Bear case

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2026)

Contract with Customer, Basis of Pricing Breakdown of Revenue (2026)

Peer comparison

Research Tools

Leidos Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: LDOS)

About

Investment thesis

Bull case

Bear case

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2026)

Contract with Customer, Basis of Pricing Breakdown of Revenue (2026)

Peer comparison

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