Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE: ALK)

Sector: Industrials Industry: Airlines CIK: 0000766421
Market Cap 6.72 Bn
P/B 1.63
P/E 67.15
P/S 0.47
ROIC (Qtr) 1.97
Div Yield % 0.00
Rev 1y % (Qtr) 2.77
Total Debt (Qtr) 6.89 Bn
Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.67
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About

Alaska Air Group, Inc., often referred to as Alaska Airlines, is a significant player in the American airline industry, headquartered in Seattle, Washington. The company operates two airlines, Alaska and Horizon, and is a member of the oneworld alliance. As the fifth-largest airline in the United States, Alaska Airlines is renowned for its exceptional guest service, connectivity, and schedules along the West Coast. Alaska Air Group's primary business activities revolve around the airline industry, with operations spanning across the United States...

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Investment thesis

Bull case

  • Operating cash flow of 1.25B provides strong 124.90x coverage of stock compensation 10M, indicating sustainable incentive practices.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.25B fully covers other non-current liabilities 246M by 5.08x, showing strong long-term stability.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.25B provides strong 6.15x coverage of inventory 203M, indicating efficient inventory management.
  • Cash reserves of 655M provide solid 2.66x coverage of other non-current liabilities 246M, indicating strong liquidity.
  • Retained earnings of 5.03B represent substantial 1.22x of equity 4.12B, indicating strong internal capital generation.

Bear case

  • Operating cash flow of 1.25B barely covers its investment activities of (1.62B), with a coverage ratio of -0.77, indicating heavy reliance on external financing for growth which may not be sustainable in a tighter credit environment.
  • Operating cash flow of 1.25B provides insufficient coverage of deferred revenue obligations of 3.43B, which is 0.36x, raising concerns about future service delivery capabilities.
  • High receivables of 565M relative to inventory of 203M (2.78 ratio) suggests aggressive credit terms or collection difficulties, potentially masking revenue quality issues.
  • Free cash flow of (339M) provides weak coverage of capital expenditures of 1.59B, with a -0.21 ratio suggesting additional external financing needs for growth initiatives.
  • Operating earnings of 418M show weak coverage of depreciation charges of 795M, with a 0.53 ratio indicating high capital intensity and potential reinvestment needs.

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Segments Breakdown of Revenue (2025)

Peer comparison

Companies in the Airlines
S.No. Ticker Company Market Cap P/E P/S Total Debt (Qtr)
1 DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. 45.93 Bn 9.18 0.72 20.27 Bn
2 UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc. 37.05 Bn 11.05 0.63 31.04 Bn
3 LUV Southwest Airlines Co 29.18 Bn 66.17 1.04 5.98 Bn
4 AAL American Airlines Group Inc. 9.42 Bn 15.65 0.17 36.06 Bn
5 ALK Alaska Air Group, Inc. 6.72 Bn 67.15 0.47 6.89 Bn
6 SKYW Skywest Inc 4.33 Bn 10.12 1.07 2.47 Bn
7 AERO Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. 2.64 Bn 7.49 0.49 4.06 Bn
8 JBLU Jetblue Airways Corp 2.20 Bn -3.66 0.24 9.42 Bn

Industry comparisons

Current Valuation Value Ind Avg Percentile
EV to Assets EV to Assets 0.61 0.75
EV to Cash from Ops. EV/CFO 9.91 -1.78
EV to Debt EV to Debt 1.80 1.92
EV to EBIT EV/EBIT 29.62 12.70
EV to EBITDA EV/EBITDA 11.28 -7.83
EV to Free Cash Flow [EV/FCF] EV/FCF -36.52 4.43
EV to Market Cap EV to Market Cap 1.84 2.37
EV to Revenue EV/Rev 0.87 1.05
Price to Book Value [P/B] P/B 1.63 0.89
Price to Earnings [P/E] P/E 67.15 14.33
Dividend Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Dividend Coverage Ratio Div Coverage (Qtr) 0.00 22,529.03
Dividend Payout Ratio % Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 7.43
Dividend per Basic Share Div per Share (Qtr) 0.00 0.11
FCF Dividend Payout Ratio % FCF Div Payout % (Qtr) 0.00 -2.56
Interest Coverage Int. cover (Qtr) 1.54 1.76
Growth Metrics Value Ind Avg Percentile
Capex Growth (1y) % Capex 1y % (Qtr) -23.97 -69.47
Cash and Equivalents Growth (1y) % Cash & Equiv 1y % (Qtr) -46.75 40.07
Dividend Growth (1y) % Div 1y % (Qtr) 0.00 2.71
EBIAT Growth (1y) % EBIAT 1y % (Qtr) -44.83 -58.97
EBITDA Growth (1y) % EBITDA 1y % (Qtr) -4.77 80.32
EBIT Growth (1y) % EBIT 1y % (Qtr) -41.62 -22.88
EBT Growth (1y) % EBT 1y % (Qtr) -73.21 -112.97
EPS Growth (1y) % EPS 1y % (Qtr) -72.84 -167.26
FCF Growth (1y) % FCF 1y % (Qtr) -285.25 2,772.29
Gross Profit Growth (1y) % Gross Profit 1y % (Qtr) 20.15 7.74
Liquidity Ratios Value Ind Avg Percentile
Asset Utilization Ratio Asset Util Ratio (Qtr) 0.70 0.74
Cash Payout Ratio Cash Payout (Qtr) 0.00 0.01
Cash Ratio Cash Ratio (Qtr) 0.10 0.24
Current Ratio Curr Ratio (Qtr) 0.50 0.56
Debt to Equity Ratio Debt/Equity (Qtr) 1.67 0.61
Interest Cover Ratio Int Coverage (Qtr) 1.54 1.76
Times Interest Earned Times Interest Earned (Qtr) 1.54 1.76
Profitability Value Ind Avg Percentile
EBITDA Margin % EBITDA Margin % (Qtr) 8.50 5.51
EBIT Margin % EBIT Margin % (Qtr) 2.94 -0.22
EBT Margin % EBT Margin % (Qtr) 1.03 -3.82
Gross Margin % Gross Margin % (Qtr) 55.10 41.52
Net Profit Margin % Net Margin % (Qtr) 0.70 -4.40